Retirement Monte Carlo Calculator
Use this free retirement Monte Carlo calculator to test your retirement plan against 2,000 simulated futures, instead of one fixed return. Enter your ages, expenses, savings and SIP, and choose a portfolio style before and after retirement. The calculator shows in how many simulated futures your money lasts, and the SIP you would need to make that more likely.
How this retirement Monte Carlo calculator works
A normal retirement calculator assumes the same return every year. Real markets do not behave that way, and the order of good and bad years matters a great deal, especially once you start withdrawing money. This calculator draws 2,000 random sequences of yearly returns around the average for your chosen portfolio style, and runs your plan through each one. Your SIP grows until retirement. After that, your expenses, rising with inflation, are withdrawn every month until the age you plan up to. A future counts as one where the money lasts if there is still money left at that age. For example, with the starting values (age 30, retiring at 60, planning up to 90, ₹40,000 of monthly expenses today and a ₹20,000 SIP), the money lasts in 1,024 of 2,000 simulated futures. The result is an illustration, not a forecast.
How to read the result
The headline is a count of simulated futures, not a measure of your chance of success. The three corpus figures show a poor, a typical and a good future: one in ten simulated futures ends below the poor figure, and one in ten above the good one. The SIP lines show roughly how much you would need to invest each month for the money to last in 80% or 90% of the simulated futures. In the chart, the shaded band holds the middle 80% of futures, and the line along the bottom drops to zero where the poor futures run out of money.
The portfolio styles
The three styles are illustrative assumptions, not forecasts or recommendations. Equity-heavy assumes a 12% average return with yearly swings of about 18%. Balanced assumes 9.5% and about 11%. Conservative assumes 7.5% and about 6%. Average returns are compounded monthly, as in our other calculators. Higher average returns come with larger swings, and a plan that looks comfortable on average can still fail if the bad years come early. Try each style and see how the result changes.
Why this can differ from our Retirement calculator
Our Retirement calculator uses one steady return, so it gives a single answer. This calculator shows the same plan with ups and downs, and the result is usually more cautious, because a bad run of years early in retirement does more damage than the same years later. The line “Corpus if returns were steady at the average” shows what the steady case gives, for comparison.
What this calculator does not include
Taxes, fund costs and the chance of a market very different from the ones simulated are not included. Inflation is kept steady at the rate you enter, while real inflation also changes. Returns in different years are treated as independent, whereas real markets sometimes show long spells of weakness or strength. Expenses stay the same in real terms, with no allowance for health costs or a change in lifestyle, and other income such as a pension is not counted. Please treat the result as a starting point for a conversation, not a prediction.
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले सवाल (FAQs)
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
It is a way of testing a plan against many possible futures made with random numbers, instead of a single assumed future. Here, each simulated future is a different sequence of yearly returns, and the calculator counts how many of them leave you with money until the age you plan up to.
Does a high count mean my plan will work?
No. The count only describes the simulated futures made from the assumptions on this page. It does not measure the chance of anything happening in real life. A higher count means the plan held up in more of the simulated futures, which is a useful sign, but it is not a promise.
What can I do if the result is low?
You can invest more each month, retire later, plan to spend less, or take less risk after retirement, and the calculator lets you test each of these. Try raising the SIP to the amount shown for 80% of futures and see how the picture changes. We would be happy to help you think through the options.
Is the return shown guaranteed?
No. Mutual fund returns are market-linked and can be higher or lower than the rates you enter. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully. Learn more on the AMFI investor awareness site.
How is this different from the SWP calculator?
Our SWP calculator shows how long a sum you already have can fund withdrawals at a steady return. This calculator also includes the years of saving before retirement and the ups and downs of the market.
Is my information saved?
The calculations run in your browser. The figures you enter are not sent to us or stored unless you choose to send them, for example by using the WhatsApp button.