Market Crash Simulator

Use this free market crash simulator to see what a market fall can do to your SIP, and what stopping or selling during the fall could cost. Enter your SIP, the size and timing of the fall, and how long the market takes to recover. The calculator compares four investors who start with the same SIP and react in different ways.

How this market crash simulator works

The market grows at the normal return you enter, falls by the percentage you choose over the months you set, and then takes the months you set to win back its earlier peak, after which normal growth resumes. Four investors put in the same SIP every month. One never faces a fall. One keeps investing through it. One stops the SIP from the start of the fall until the earlier peak is won back. One sells everything at the lowest point, keeps that money and each month’s SIP in cash, and buys back in later. For example, with a ₹10,000 SIP for 20 years at 12%, a 30% fall after year 5 that lasts 6 months and takes 24 months to recover, the investor who keeps going ends with about ₹87.5 lakh, against ₹99.9 lakh with no fall. The one who stops the SIP ends with about ₹71.5 lakh, and the one who sells at the bottom and buys back 12 months after the recovery ends with about ₹73.8 lakh. The result is an illustration, not a forecast.

What to look at

Even the investor who keeps going ends about ₹12.4 lakh behind the no-fall case in this example. The investors who stopped or sold ended further behind. The one who stops misses cheap units bought during the fall and pays in less money overall. The one who sells locks in the loss and then buys back at higher prices. Try changing the size of the fall and the year it starts. A fall late in the plan, when the portfolio is larger, costs more in rupees than the same fall early on: in this example about ₹23.5 lakh if it starts after year 15, against about ₹5.5 lakh if it starts after year 2. Stopping the SIP shows the opposite pattern, and costs the most when it happens early.

Why the seller returns late

Selling in a fall and waiting for things to feel safe often means buying back after prices have already recovered, so the calculator lets you set the delay. Setting it to zero gives the seller perfect timing, which is rare in practice. Even then, selling at the bottom turns a temporary fall into a permanent loss.

What this simulator does not include

Taxes, exit loads and fund costs are not included. Real falls and recoveries are rarely this smooth, and some take far longer than the recovery you enter. The simulator shows one fall only, and it cannot tell you whether a fall will happen or when. It also assumes your SIP stays the same and that you can buy and sell at the prices shown.

अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले सवाल (FAQs)

Should I stop my SIP when the market falls?

For investors with a long horizon, many planners suggest continuing, because a SIP buys more units when prices are low. This is general information, not advice for your situation. If you need the money soon, or the fall has changed your income, please talk to us about the right approach.

What if the market takes longer to recover?

Increase the months to win back the earlier peak and see the difference. Some falls have taken years to recover. The longer the recovery, the more it matters that you can afford to stay invested for the whole time.

What if I am close to needing the money?

A fall just before you need the money is the hardest case, because there is less time to recover. That is why goals only a few years away are usually planned with a more cautious mix. See our Goal SIP calculator or our Retirement Monte Carlo calculator.

Is the return shown guaranteed?

No. Mutual fund returns are market-linked and can be higher or lower than the rates you enter. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully. Learn more on the AMFI investor awareness site.

Is my information saved?

The calculations run in your browser. The figures you enter are not sent to us or stored unless you choose to send them, for example by using the WhatsApp button.